TNI Biotech Inc (OTCMKTS:TNIB) Attempts a Comeback Again

September and, more specifically, the first week of it, was one of the worst periods in TNI Biotech Inc (OTCMKTS:TNIB)’s trading history. The ticker took a massive plunge and incinerated more than 70% of its value in just seven sessions. After dropping below the $1 per share mark for the first time in more than a year, it did try to recover and, for a short while, it looked like it will be capable of doing it. Between September 13 and September 16, TNIB registered three consecutive green sessions and clawed its way back above $1. Soon after, however, the gains were once again wiped out.

During the past couple of weeks, trading has been pretty uneventful, but on Thursday and Friday, TNIB showed us that it hasn’t given up just yet. In fact, it seems to be determined to get back above the $2 per share barrier. The two sessions ended with increased trading and dollar volumes and the total price gain amounts to no less than 63%. Even early trading today seems rather positive (half an hour after the opening bell, TNIB is 6% above Friday’s close). But what is causing all the excitement?

That’s a difficult question. We wrote in one of our previous articles that there wasn’t an immediately obvious reason for the catastrophic drop from the beginning of September and it would appear that there isn’t one for the current ascend either. TNIB did file a 10-12 G/A form on Friday but it doesn’t really give us any sort of new information about the company. There aren’t any traceable promotions for the ticker and even Small Cap Network’s coverage that we previously talked about isn’t particularly active.

The latest press release hit the wire on October 2 and we doubt that its effects have lasted for nearly ten days, but we still decided to open it and check what TNIB have to say. As it turns out, they’ve signed another agreement. This time, it’s with an entity called AHAR Pharma that was established a couple of months ago for the sole purpose of distributing TNIB‘s products on the Nigerian market. The press release says that AHAR will purchase $1 million worth of Lodonal capsules by the end of 2013 and will bring TNIB a whopping $53 million in gross revenues in 2014.

Sounds extremely exciting, but here’s a thing to consider – the PR clearly says that AHAR Pharma was formed “in 2013” and this begs the question: “Was the time enough to establish a nation-wide distribution network that will generate $53 million in yearly revenues?”. This remains to be seen and the same goes for the overall effects of the distribution agreement.

TNIB sound extremely happy about the new development, but we reckon that, until they come up with some cold hard facts confirming the start of the revenue generation, standing by is your best bet. Why are we so pessimistic?

Well, you don’t really need to dig that far to see why. When you go to TNIB‘s official website, you’ll see an interview with the company CEO, Ms. Noreen Griffin on the homepage. If you take the time to watch through the whole video, you’ll see that Ms. Griffin does seem genuinely optimistic about the company’s future and says (about a minute and a half into the video) that the first deliveries of immunotherapies should start during the first quarter of 2013. The SEC filings show that these predictions turned out to be little more than wishful thinking.

That, coupled with the fact that the share price is moving both up and down for little or no reason, should give you a clear enough picture of how risky a potential TNIB investment is. Make sure you consider all the dangers carefully before putting any money on the line.

Another ticker that finished last week on a positive note is AEGEA Inc (OTCBB:AEGA) who became the target of a brand new $750 thousand pump. Things didn’t go quite so well for Vertical Computer Systems Inc. (OTCMKTS:VCSY) who, after generating a lot of stir during Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions dropped by about 7% on Thursday and erased a whopping 36% on Friday.